The headline number
Chicken chain sales grew 5.3% in 2025, down from 9.1% in 2024 and more than 12% in 2023. That is still meaningfully ahead of the 3% posted by the restaurant industry overall, and the demand backdrop remains excellent — USDA projects per-capita chicken availability at a record 102.8 pounds in 2026, keeping chicken the most consumed animal protein in America. What has changed is that the category is no longer growing fast enough for every brand to win.12
Where the growth went
Dave's Hot Chicken grew sales 51% and units 52.3% in 2025, making it the fastest-growing chain among the 200 largest concepts in America. Raising Cane's added 10.3% more units and 10.6% more sales, crossing $5.48B. Layne's Chicken Fingers doubled its footprint for a second consecutive year. Zaxby's crossed 1,000 units. Every one of those gains came out of somebody else's traffic.134
Where it came from
KFC closed 312 U.S. restaurants in the twelve months to July 2026 — 7.64% of its American footprint — and ended 2025 at 3,523 units against 3,669 entering the year. Popeyes has now posted six consecutive quarters of negative U.S. comparable sales, with Q1 2026 at -6.5%, its worst quarter in roughly two decades. Jollibee closed more than 200 stores group-wide in the first half of 2026 and cut its opening target. Even Wingstop, the category's development champion, saw domestic same-store sales fall 7.5% in Q2 2026.5678910
The franchisee is where it breaks first
Restaurant Brands International disclosed that average Popeyes franchisee restaurant-level profitability fell to roughly $235,000 in 2025. Within weeks, Sailormen — a 136-restaurant operator with 3,300 employees and $233.5M of fiscal 2025 revenue — filed Chapter 11. Ninety-seven restaurants sold for $16.55M total across five buyers, and roughly 33 more went dark through lease rejection. Brand-level metrics did not predict that. Operator-level economics did.111213
What it means
For 2027, the category's most important variable is not consumer demand for chicken — that is secure. It is whether the brands losing share can stabilize franchisee unit economics before their operators run out of balance sheet. KFC is furthest along: three consecutive quarters of positive comps after seven negative ones, a menu reset around boneless, wings and sauces, and a U.S. headquarters move to Texas. Popeyes is earliest: a new U.S. president out of the Burger King turnaround, a narrowed menu, permanent value architecture, and a field organization expanding roughly 75%.141516