Where cap rates stand
Corporate-guaranteed QSR cap rates rose three basis points to 5.85% in Q2 2026 while franchisee-guaranteed QSR rose five basis points to 6.85%. Overall single-tenant net lease sat at 6.80% with retail at 6.55%. Premium ground lease product for McDonald's and Chick-fil-A asked the lowest cap rates in the sector at roughly 4.45%.12
The top of the market keeps setting records
In July 2026 a new-construction Chick-fil-A in Hixson, Tennessee traded at $2.77M and a 4.15% cap rate — per CoStar the lowest cap rate ever achieved on a single-tenant Chick-fil-A drive-thru in the state, and achieved on a 15-year term rather than the customary 20. Raising Cane's corporate-guaranteed ground leases price at 4.70%–5.00%, with a $6.84M transaction closing at 4.75%. Two brands in this category now price like credit instruments rather than restaurants.3456
The bottom of the market is repricing
Popeyes assets are marketed between 5.10% and 6.80% with an average asking cap rate near 5.80%, on 15–20 year terms with 7.5%–10% escalations. But the credit behind most of those leases is a franchisee, and 2026 supplied a live demonstration of what that means: a 136-unit Popeyes operator filed Chapter 11 and rejected roughly 33 leases. Short-term, non-rated restaurant tenants can trade 200 to 300 basis points wider than premium ground leases — and that gap widens when the operator's comps are negative.789
Supply is building
Single-tenant property supply jumped 12.5% quarter over quarter in Q2 2026 to nearly 5,800 available properties, with retail listings up 16.2%. Layered on top of that is genuine second-generation chicken inventory: 312 KFC closures in twelve months, roughly 33 rejected Popeyes leases in Florida and Georgia, 12 Church's units ceasing operations in 2025, and roughly 30 Hooters pads closing in a single day in June 2025.11081112
What it means
The opportunity in chicken real estate in 2026–2027 is not buying a 4.15% Chick-fil-A ground lease. It is the second-generation inventory: freestanding drive-thru boxes in trade areas that have supported chicken for thirty years, coming to market through franchisee distress and brand rationalization rather than through a marketed process. That inventory is generated by operator failure, which is why an operator database is a real estate tool.